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RFK Jr.'s Campaign Suspension Sparks Debate Among Polymarket Bettors

Aug 26, 2024

3 min read

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s recent announcement to pause his presidential campaign and endorse Donald Trump has ignited a heated debate among Polymarket bettors. The core of the dispute revolves around whether Kennedy's action constitutes a withdrawal or merely a suspension, impacting the resolution of betting contracts on the platform.

Key Takeaways

  • Campaign Suspension vs. Withdrawal: The debate centers on the terminology used in Polymarket contracts.

  • Financial Implications: Suspended campaigns can still receive donations under FEC rules.

  • Historical Precedents: Similar actions have been taken by other candidates in the past.

The Debate: Suspension or Withdrawal?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced last week that he was pausing his presidential campaign and endorsing Donald Trump. He cited "systematic censorship and media control" as reasons for his decision, claiming there was no realistic path to victory. However, the announcement has led to a contentious debate among Polymarket bettors.

The crux of the argument lies in the wording of the Polymarket contract, which asked about a "withdrawal" rather than a suspension. This distinction is crucial because, under Federal Election Commission (FEC) rules, suspending a campaign does not mean it is legally terminated. Suspended campaigns can still receive donations, allowing candidates to pay down debts and maintain campaign infrastructure.

Financial Implications

Kennedy's campaign is reportedly flirting with insolvency after repaying $1 million to his running mate, who was a steady financier of the operation. This financial strain adds another layer of complexity to the debate. Historically, candidates like Rick Santorum in 2012 have suspended their campaigns due to exhausted funds but kept the infrastructure in place to fundraise and pay off debts.

Historical Precedents

Suspending a campaign is not a new practice. John McCain suspended his 2008 campaign to address the financial crisis but later revived it to continue running for president. While it is a long shot for Kennedy to do the same, the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out.

Other Market Predictions

Pavel Durov's Detention

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was arrested in France over the weekend due to the platform's moderation policies. Polymarket bettors are skeptical about his release by the end of the month, with "yes" shares trading at 37 cents, indicating a 37% chance of his release. Durov's immense wealth and UAE citizenship, which does not allow extradition, add to the uncertainty.

Mpox Pandemic Unlikely

The virus formerly known as monkeypox, now called Mpox, was declared a global health emergency by the WHO on August 14. Bettors on Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market platform, are confident it will not escalate to a pandemic, pricing in just a 13% chance. Polymarket bettors are also skeptical, giving a 38% chance of a confirmed case hitting U.S. shores by September 30.

Medical experts suggest that Mpox spreads slowly through close physical contact, unlike the airborne Covid-19, making widespread transmission unlikely. Additionally, a vaccine is already available for at-risk populations in the U.S. and Europe.

Conclusion

The debate over Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s campaign status highlights the complexities of political betting markets. While historical precedents and financial implications add layers to the discussion, the final resolution will depend on the specific wording of the Polymarket contract. Meanwhile, other market predictions, such as Pavel Durov's detention and the Mpox virus, continue to capture the attention of bettors.

Sources

Aug 26, 2024

3 min read

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